Week 9 - Falling off the Wagon

After another 3-2 week (20-18-2 on the season), I totally neglected another week's worth of picks. With 7 minutes until Saturday, here is another abbreviated set coming to you live from Peabody, MA - home of the Tanners!

Washington State +27.5
USC -3
Navy -7
Miami -7
Cincinnati -15

The good news is, I'm starting a new job in a week, so life should be less hectic. Until then . . .

Week 8 - Going to the Dogs

MARSHALL -7 Uab

How have I missed talking about this? Marshall’s RB, ranked #7 in the nation in rushing IS MARSHALL. Literally. I think UAB is no match for either Marshall, and I'm taking the Herd to cover.

PITTSBURGH -6½ South Florida

TOLEDO -2½ Temple

Florida -22½ MISSISSIPPI STATE

ARIZONA -7½ Ucla

What to these other games have in common (besides that I didn't have time to do write-ups of them)? They all feature underdogs beating the spread. I'm in one of those "Let's Go Underdogs" moods this week, and I'm passing on the love to you. I'll take USF, Temple, Mississippi State and UCLA all getting the points.

On an unrelated note - and I know you've been wondering why you're all getting two crappy columns in a row - I was offered a new job this week. So, yay for me and next week's column will be better. I promise.

Week 7 Results

A quick note up-front. I always try to take a light-hearted approach to writing about college football (I happen to be a big Joe Paterno fan, and don't actually mean all - okay most of the jokes I make at his expense). However, sometimes you have to take a step back and appreciate the game - and all team sports - for being something more than a vehicle via which you can gamble. Though I never played football (I was a track geek in high school), I do know the value of being part of a team. The guys (or ladies) you spend a season with - winning, losing, and growing - become a second (and in some cases first) family.

The loss of a family member is always difficult, and I want to take the opportunity - through my modestly-read outlet - to offer my condolences to the friends and families of UConn CB Jasper Howard, who was killed in an on-campus altercation last weekend. I'm not going to wax poetic about this any more than I already have, but it was encouraging to see Howard's football family rally around the tragedy. Most touching was this quote from UConn co-captain Desi Cullen. “To hear the news he is a father … and that (the child) will grow up without a father tears me apart. As Jazz looks down on us, I can promise his son or daughter will have 105 uncles. We will be better men because of Jazz.”


On to last week's results . . .

GA Tech upset VA Tech (-3), The Longhorns (-3.5) won by a field goal and pretty much ruined Sam Bradford and the Sooners' season, Alabama rolled, but not by enough over South Carolina (+17), FIU (+10) just managed to beat the spread against Troy State, and Ohio (-13.5) played like Ohio State, dismantling Miami, OH by 21.

Week 7: 3-2
This Season: 17-16-2

Stay tuned for this week's pick either today or tomorrow. It has been a very long and nerve-wracking two weeks, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Full disclosure soon - I promise.

Week 7 - Quick Picks

Week 7 is upon us! Big match ups this weekend. USC-ND. OU-Texas. I may even pick some of them.

Bonehead of the Week

I'm nominating myself. Not so much for being a bonehead, but mostly I've been so busy that I haven't been able to craft a proper column this week. Hopefully I'll be able to explain more next week. Until then you'll have to deal with the abbreviated picks.

On to the picks

Texas -3.5 Oklahoma

I'm getting this one out of the way. In this year's Red River Shootout, the Sooner come limping (or whatever you do with a bum shoulder) into the Cotton Bowl. Texas' Colt McCoy hasn't fared much better, but at least he's playing. I'm sorry, OU fans, but Texas should run away with this one. I'm taking the Longhorns giving the points, and I'll also be watching my mail for suspicious packages from the Atlanta area.


VA Tech -3 GA Tech

Both teams have shown flashes of excellencethis season, though the Yellowjackets haven't beaten a ranked team yet. With the strength of the VA Tech defense, I don't see that trens changing this week. I'm taking the Hokies giving three.


Ohio -13.5 Miami, OH

The battle of Ohio Teams Not Named the Buckeyes! I'll take the Bobcats giving 13.5



Alabama -17 South Carolina

Last week the Tide showed everyone (myself included) that they deserve to be included in the National Championship discussion. I think the Gamecocks make a game of it. I'll take South Carolina getting the points.


Troy -10 Florida International

Both of these teams are awful. However, I think FIU is less than 10 points as awful as the Trojans. I'll take the Golden Panthers getting ten points.

Until next week . . .

Week 6 Results - Back to .500

Yup - I got exactly what I needed last week - a perfect 5-0 week to counteract the wonderful results I got from the Red Sox (a sweep) and the Texans (A Schaub interception returned for a game winning TD). I'd be lying if I said that I wasn't surprised by the Red Sox meltdown, but the Texans game - that was a crushing defeat. When you're the only Texans fan in the Tri-State area (possibly even on the East Coast) - and yes, I do in fact own an authentic Demeco Ryans jersey - you take these things to heart. With the complete parity of the AFC this year outside of Denver, Indy and Cinci(?), a wild card spot for my Texans isn't entirely out of the question - though they could easily lose their next 7 straight and guarantee another sub .500 season.

On a random side note, I ran into Joey Simmons a.k.a. Rev. Run (of Run DMC fame) [and someone who looked an awful lot like his slightly more famous brother Russell] this afternoon at Subway on 56th Street of all places. I guess God is Love, as is a foot long meatball marinara sub.

Since it is already Wednesday, I'll make it an easy recap. I picked every game correctly. Navy (-11.5) destroyed Rice, UConn (+7.5) kept it close, Alabama (-4.5) showed that they are a BCS Championship contender, Kent State (+3) lost by one in heartbreaking fashion on Homecoming Weekend, and Michigan State (-4) covered against the Illini. Like Ashton Kutcher, I'm awesome!!





Week 6: 5-0
This season: 14-14-2


Anyhow - for those of you also keeping track, Jeff limped to 1-3-1 this week.

Week 6 - Big Conference Matchups . . . and Navy!

I always felt badly for the D1A "Independent Schools." Well, at least not those that have a national TV contract. Though Temple, Western Kentucky and UConn have all fallen under this moniker, and Army spent an unsuccessful 7 years in Conference USA, I'm talking specifically about the Middies at Navy. Here is a better than average team that never gets to beat up on weak conference opponents. They never play the Mississippi States or Dukes or Washington States that Florida, VA Tech and USC have on their in-conference schedules. Navy has to settle for a five year rivalry with Temple. The Midshipmen won't play in a BCS game either, unless Notre Dame is putrid and Navy manages to have an undefeated season that would warrant even consideration of an invite. What is my point? As usual, I don't have one - I'm just ranting. However, I will make it a point to pick Navy games more often, since they always manage to keep the score close and are a pretty good team against the spread.

Bonehead of the Week

I'm going with the chair of the FSU trustee board Jim Smith and head coach Bobby Bowden. After the Seminoles lost again, Smith said that Bowden's days at FSU were numbered. Bowden's response?:

The moral of the story - don't get into a pissing match with a 79 year old man. Their bladders are unpredictable.

On to the picks.

Navy -11.5 Rice

Navy's first game in the battle to be the best four letter team in the nation! Watch out, Troy, Army and Duke - this could be Navy's year. Navy is coming off a morale-boosting OT win against Air Force, and I think they'll use the momentum to roll over Rice this week. Granted, Rice is just awful, allowing an average of 40+ points per game. The Midshipmen should have no trouble covering against Rice, and I'm taking them giving the points.

Pitt -7.5 UConn

From a pure gambling point of view, this is an intriguing matchup. My friend (okay, we've never actually met) Danny Sheridan lists this one as a 7.5 point spread, whereas most other "for entertainment purposes only" sites have it at 6.5. Here's a free tip - when there is a full point difference between the recognized spread and the one you're using, someone either is A) adamant that they are correct, or B) not watching the way people are betting. Either way, I like UConn's chances here - mostly because they are 4-0 against the spread this season, and while I think Pitt is a good team, I don't see them emerging as the Big East contender this season. However, they do have a QB named Bill Stull who has already tossed 11 TDs and has a strong, Big XII-esque sounding name (like Colt McCoy, Taylor Potts or Robert Griffin III). He also has the 4th best passer rating, which I guess is also a sign of success. He'll be up against a UConn defense that is 5th in the nation in sacks, and pretty effective against the pass. I'm taking UConn getting 7.5 here, from the "they're getting too many points" standpoint.


Alabama -4.5 Ole Miss

Roll Tide! This Alabama offense scores so frequently and so easily, you'd think they were slipping their opponents roofies. [NOTE: Neither Lee, nor Lee's Picks of the Week endorse or advocate the use of Rohypnol in any way shape or form. In fact, if you knew Lee in college you'd know he was more like Western Kentucky than Alabama.] The Tide starts a string of games against three tough opponents (and an underrated Tennessee team) with the trip to Oxford this week. The Rebels will look to capitalize (no, that is not a "people from Mississippi have difficulty with grammar" joke) on lat week's drubbing of Vandy. They will be up for a big challenge as Alabama brings the 2nd ranked defense along with their high-powered offense. I think Alabama wins this one and covers the spread, and with the status of Florida QB Tim Tebow in question, there is a good chance that Alabama could springboard into the top 2 by Halloween.


Bowling Green -3 Kent State

Whoooooooo! MAC Football - Feel the excitement!

Bowling Green will look to stop a four game losing streak against a Golden Flashes squad that is going with a quarterback by committee strategy. However, the key to the Kent State offense has been converted-wide-receiver-to-tailback Jacquise Terry. If Terry can carry the offense for Kent State, the Falcons will have a tough time avoiding a 5th straight loss. If you've managed to stay awake through this paragraph, congrats! I had as much trouble finding a hook as you did reading it. I'm taking Kent State getting the points. Here's a video to wake you up.




Michigan State -4 Illinois

Last week Michigan State pulled off an overtime upset against rival Michgan. The Illini countered with their 3rd loss - a trampling by Penn State and Grandpa Joe. The Spartans are one of those middle-of-the-road Big Ten teams that ends up going .500 and playing in the Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl. They win the games they're supposed to win, lose the ones they're supposed to lose, and pull off an upset in the middle. Well, with the upset accomplished, I say they move on to Illinois and scratch out a win against a vastly inferior team. They only thing I can see that Illinois brings to the table is some wisdom on the bench. I'm taking MSU giving the points.


Jeff's Picks of the Weak

Iowa -8

Virginia -6.5

Mississippi +4.5

LSU +8

Oklahoma +26

Until next time . . .

Week 5 Results and Thank Yous

Not bad for a bounce back week. If I wasn't so afraid of Sooners fans from New Jersey, I would have gone 4-1.

Before I get to the results, I'd like to thank Devin Heritage, Laura Zambuto, and TA & Cheeques for donating and helping the JDRF over the weekend. The walk was a big success, and all told I managed to raise $87. Thanks again for your support, and it still isn't too late to contribute.

One side note. As you may know, tonight is Game One of the ALDS, and I thought I'd pass along the following email exchange between a co-worker and myself:

If I told you that the Twins had a guy going in Game One who had never pitched for them in the postseason, you would feel confident.

If I told you that the Twins had a guy going for them in Game One who had a career losing record in postseason play and never had pitched past the 6th inning, you would probably pencil in a “W” for the Yankees.

If I told you that the Twins had a guy going for them in Game One who had a 9.47 postseason ERA since 2007, coupled with a WHIP of 2.32, you would ask me why the Twins were putting that guy in the rotation, let alone starting Game One.

Those are statistics, and you cannot argue with them.

Now were the Yankees to put that guy on the mound, you’d tell me that he is going to without a doubt get the win, he’d likely give up 2 runs or fewer, and that he’d work well into the 7th inning or beyond. That guy is CC Sabathia.

None of this matters, because Josh Beckett (he of a 7-2 record, 2.90 ERA, less than 1 walk or hit per inning in the postseason and 2 World Series titles) sucks.

My co-worker's response:

In 1997, a nobody named Scott Brosius batted a cool .203 for a marginal Oakland Athletics squad. In 1998, he came to the Yankees, bat .300, hit 19 homeruns, and drove in a career-high 98 RBI. In his first taste of the postseason, he went 20 for 47 with 4 homeruns and 15 RBI.

In 1992, mild-mannered right fielder Paul O’Neill was treading water in Cincinnati, batting .246 in the soft underbelly of the NL Central. Things changed in 1993 when O’Neill joined the New York Yankees, where he threw off the Clark Kent-guise and exploded into the spotlight, batting .311 with 20 homeruns, leaving opponents and dozens of Gatorade coolers reduced to rubble in his wake.

The lesson here, of course, is that it’s a complete waste of time to use what someone did before joining the Yankees as a predictive tool for how they might perform once a member of the greatest team in the history of sports. The Yankees are magic.

And for the record, over the past month CC has an ERA more than a run lower than Beckett, as well as a lower WHIP and more strikeouts.

I notice the Red Sox aren’t playing tonight – is today one of the big holidays on the Douchebag calendar?

Feeling the need to counter, I replied:

Congrats on being the first person ever to use the words “Paul O’Neill” and “mild-mannered” in the same sentence.

To your point, yes, past non-Yankee performances are not always indicative of Yankee playoff performances.

• The great Carl Pavano went 18-8 and a WS title for Florida in 2004, and then proceeded to amass a stellar 4-6 record in his 2005 campaign with the Yankees, making 0 postseason appearances with the Yankees;
• Future Hall of Famer Kevin Brown went 58-32 with the Dodgers before coming to the Yankees and putting up a Steinbrenner-pleasing 14-13 regular-season record, and managed a Game 7 loss to Boston in the 2004 ALCS (a.k.a. The Greatest Comeback in the History of Sports™;
• Mr. Reliable Alex Rodriguez hit a torrid .421 in his first playoff series with the Yankees (2004 ALDS) and has since hit a cool Mendoza Line (15 for 75).

Please don’t engage me in any more of this conversation. Let’s agree to disagree, being it such a big holiday on the Douchebag calendar - the Celtics kick off their pre-season with a game against Houston.

Best regards,

Lee

I'll update this if/when it continues. For now, the results of last week's picks.

I managed to go 3-2 including:

• Penn State (-7) taking Illinois behind the woodshed and winning 35-17
• Wyoming (+3.5) became the latest team to beat the Worst Team in Florida - Florida Atlantic, 30-28
• B.C. (+4) beat ACC rival Florida State at home 28-21
• Notre Dame (-13) managed to beat Washington, but did so by a margin so thin . . . come back to me, I have a Charlie Weis joke in here somewhere.
• The aforementioned Oklahoma Sooners (-7) lost the game - and their BCS title chances - to Miami 21-20.

Meanwhile, the Guru himself, Jeff Lerner went 1-3-1 on the week, forcing him to remember what happens when you mess with the (guy who is full of) Bull. You're gonna get (an opportunity to pick OU against) the Horns.

Week 5: 3-2
Season: 9-14-2

Week 5 - Back to Basics

Call it a Greatest Hits Week of picks. I'm going with some of my favorite teams to pick this week, in the hopes that it changes my luck. All of your favorite Florida schools are back along with the Sooners and the Fighting Irish. All we're missing is Temple, and I'm not even sure those readers who go there will miss the Owls that much. Additionally, I had my fill of temple this past weekend, so give me another week and I'll come back singing the praises of the Cherry and White. Before I do, I'll make another plug to sponsor me in the JDRF 6.2 mile walk this weekend. It only takes a few minutes, it doesn't hurt, and its charity . . . yes, I'm still talking about the walk.

Bonehead of the Week

As I noted earlier, I'm going with Texas Tech coach Mike Leach. Said Leach about his team, "It's a bunch of narcissists that want to sit and type stuff about themselves all the time. We'll put mirrors in some of their lockers if that's necessary, but they don't have to Twitter."

If narcissism can be explained by sitting and typing about yourself all the time, maybe Carly Simon was talking about me. On to the picks.

Notre Dame -13 Washington

I know Jimmy Clausen isn't 100% because of Turf Toe - a highly underrated condition - and that could seriously affect his playing time. If the Irish were up against a top 25 opponent, that might be a problem. However, Washington has been having a weird year under new head coach Steve Sarkisian. They lost to a good LSU team, and then were beaten handily last week by Stanford (?!), a week after upsetting Sarkisian's old team the Trojans. You could make the argument that Sarkisian was all too familiar with USC and gave the Huskies an edge. You could also make the argument that a guy who has won one game in the last two weeks isn't exactly a college football "expert." Point taken. I think Clausen and the Irish will overcome the Turf Toe, and even if Notre Dame switches to the Wildcat offense led by Dayne Crist, I still think they'll have enough to win by 2 TDs. I'm taking the Irish giving the points.

Oklahoma -7 Miami

News Flash - Sam Bradford will not play this week.

This is the pick that gets me into trouble. Oklahoma has played 8 straight quarters of pretty much flawless football, outscoring Idaho State and Tulsa 109-0. Miami is no Tulsa, or Idaho State for that matter. While the Sooners bring the nation's top defense into Coral Gables, they do so without having played an opponent on the level of the Hurricanes. Last week, we saw Miami's

Jacory Harris held to 150 yards and zero TDs. While I think that the Sooners will give Harris similar difficulty, I also think that Miami will bounce back offensively this week. Granted, I also think that this blog is my way to fame and fortune, so what do I know?

The Sooners should win this game, but I think it will be a very low-scoring affair. Against all better judgment, and because I'm afraid of a certain New Jersey native that once made me do shots of beer until I puked, and then goaded me into start doing it again, I'm going with the Sooners to cover.

Penn State -7 Illinois

Don't call it a comeback - Joe Pa's been here for years. Literally. I'm taking the Nittany Lions to cover.

FL Atlantic -3½ Wyoming

I've been called out for picking games involving vague teams. In this case, guilty as charged. Here's what I know about these two teams. They're awful. Both of them. I'm talking both-teams-have-given-up-114-points-each-this-season bad. However, it took FAU only 3 games to do that, whereas Wyoming did it in 4. Amazingly, even though they've given up 114 points, the Cowboys are 2-2. One of those losses was to #2 Texas. I should be careful - I'm talking this team up to Temple-like proportions. Focusing on the game, the main subplot is that Wyoming coach Dave Christensen underwent surgery to remove a kidney stone this week, and will return to the sidelines. I can't think of a better present for Christensen than a win. Well, maybe a glass of water and an anti-inflammatory. I'm taking Wyoming getting the points.


Florida State -4 B.C.

B.C.'s defense finally faltered last week, as Wake Forest took the Eagles to overtime. The Eagles haven't lost at home this season, where they host the Seminoles on Saturday. Florida State comes into the contest having lost to a very good South Florida team (that is somehow still unranked), and brings with them some impressive stats: 1-0 on the road (BYU), over 1000 yards passing, and not a single felony committed. That along should be worth an extra point or two in the spread. Alas, I don't think FSU's defense will hold up against a B.C. offense that has outscored opponents by an average of 16.5 points this season. For that reason - and because I'm a huge homer - I'm taking the Eagles getting the points.

Jeff's Picks of the (not-so) Weak

So I neglected to say that Jeff went 3-2 last week, largely because he picked Michigan to both win and lose. As he beat me for a second time, I will now take him apple picking (see where I'm going with this?). Here are his picks for this week:

Michigan +2

Washington State +32 1/2

Oklahoma -7

Navy -3

Penn State -7

Until next time . . .