Week 13: 3-2
Season: 31-33-1
I'm still clinging to the hopes of going .500 on the season. With anything better than 3-1-1 record next week I'll be bowl eligible. Championship Week features some match ups which have major BCS implications. Then again, with 4 of the top ten teams losing last week, we could very well be headed for a West Virginia - Mizzou title game. Whoooo! Break out the Tivo for that one!
I'd also like to take this opportunity to apologize to Bill Callahan for being a clearvoyant. I guess Tom Osborne reads my blog after all.
Looking ahead to next week, we have the CUSA, MAC, ACC, SEC, and Big XII title games, along with Hawaii's quest to become the latest undefeated team not to play in a BCS bowl game. Couple that with #25 BYU likely not headed to the post season, and it looks like there might be a few non-BCS teams clamoring for bowl game exposure. Hmmm - now that sounds like something we don't see every year.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Week 13
Last Week - 3-2
This Season - 28-31-1
Happy Turkey Day!
Since I started a new job this week, and it is Thanksgiving, I'm serving up an abbreviated version of the picks this week. By the way, my apologies to the Ithaca Bombers who were trounced by the Purple Raiders last week, 42-18. Next up for Mount Union, Ewing, New Jersey's own College of New Jersey Lions! Try to contain your excitement.
Maurice Clarett nominee: Manch-vegas' own Jesse M.
No, he doesn't play college football, and since he's a "public figure" in the Granite State, I won't give his full name, but it rhymes with Artineau. In honor of Jesse's wedding tomorrow, he has won the award this week. Real smart, Jesse, one vagina for the rest of your life.
Seriously, I'm sorry I couldn't make it, but congrats to Jess and Kim on their wedding. I'm sure the two of you will be very happy, as long as the Red Sox keep winning. Kim, just know that in college Jesse had promised to name his first born after his favorite Red Sox if they ever won the World Series. I'm looking forward to meeting Oil Can Martineau someday.
On to the picks . . .
Home team in BOLD
Hawaii -3.5 Boise State
With a win, Hawaii can almost guarantee a spot in a BCS bowl game. While there is no chance that the Warriors will leapfrog the PAC 10 winner, Big XII winner, and/or LSU to make it to Nawlins, there is a shot that Colt Brennan can revive his Heisman hopes. Standing in his way are the Kings of the Trick Play (sorry OU fans, I know you're still crying after last week's upset - I told you so). The Broncos are 10-1 and are averaging 44+ points per game this year. Hawaii narrowly escaped an upset last week at Nevada, and is two wins away from doing what Boise State did last year. Lets just hope that the BCS computer has ESPN2. Otherwise, the winner of this game could be relegated to the Humanitarian Bowl. Yay, Idaho! Hawaii covers the spread in this shootout.
Colorado -4.5 Nebraska
I'm sure that Bill Callahan would like nothing more than to end his coaching career at Nebraska with a win over rival Colorado. What, Callahan hasn't been fired yet? Tom Osborne, what were you hired for? Pull the trigger already! The only person from Nebraska having a worse year than Callahan is Gerald Ford - and he's dead. I'm not sure that President Ford could do a worse job coaching the Huskers either. For Colorado, they're a win away from being bowl eligible one season after going 2-12. And they did it without the help of Colt Brennan, a female kicker, or strippers! See, Notre Dame, there's hope for you after all. Colorado covers the spread this week.
Oregon -2 UCLA
This game makes me nervous. I hate taking a shaky road favorite, but I can't believe that the Ducks will lose two straight weeks even without the arm/legs of Dennis Dixon. They're really making the best of the situation, too. "The national championship thing was fine while it lasted," Oregon coach Mike Bellotti said. "The reality is we're still always trying to get the conference championship and the very best bowl game (the Rose Bowl)." Sure coach - I'm sure the mood in the locker room after last week's loss was all (pardon the pun) Roses. Let's put this game in perspective. Oregon is still 9th in the country and UCLA lost to Notre Dame. That alone should seal it up for most people. However, Oregon and UCLA give up roughly the
same number of points per game, and without Dennis Dixon, I don't think Oregon has enough firepower to come out on top. I'm taking UCLA with the points.
Texas -5 Texas A&M
I got an email from Dennis Franchione saying that they have no way to stop Colt McCoy. I subscribe to his super-secret booster club newsletter. That's why I'm going with the Longhorns to cover the spread.
VA Tech -3.5 Virginia
Could this be the year that Al Groh beats the Hokies? Does either team have a chance against Matt Ryan and BC for the ACC title? Does anybody really care about ACC Football now that basketball season started? VA Tech showed that they can hang with the ACC Atlantic champion Eagles for 58 minutes. Virginia hasn't had the pleasure of facing BC yet. After last week's drubbing of Miami, I think the Cavaliers are still the team to beat, and they'll prove that they are every bit as hot as I say they are against the Hokies in Charlottesville this week. Or, they'll lose miserably and I'll be forced to find a new "best team in the East." I'm taking Virginia with the points. I hope.
Until next week . . .
This Season - 28-31-1
Happy Turkey Day!
Since I started a new job this week, and it is Thanksgiving, I'm serving up an abbreviated version of the picks this week. By the way, my apologies to the Ithaca Bombers who were trounced by the Purple Raiders last week, 42-18. Next up for Mount Union, Ewing, New Jersey's own College of New Jersey Lions! Try to contain your excitement.
Maurice Clarett nominee: Manch-vegas' own Jesse M.
No, he doesn't play college football, and since he's a "public figure" in the Granite State, I won't give his full name, but it rhymes with Artineau. In honor of Jesse's wedding tomorrow, he has won the award this week. Real smart, Jesse, one vagina for the rest of your life.
Seriously, I'm sorry I couldn't make it, but congrats to Jess and Kim on their wedding. I'm sure the two of you will be very happy, as long as the Red Sox keep winning. Kim, just know that in college Jesse had promised to name his first born after his favorite Red Sox if they ever won the World Series. I'm looking forward to meeting Oil Can Martineau someday.
On to the picks . . .
Home team in BOLD
Hawaii -3.5 Boise State
With a win, Hawaii can almost guarantee a spot in a BCS bowl game. While there is no chance that the Warriors will leapfrog the PAC 10 winner, Big XII winner, and/or LSU to make it to Nawlins, there is a shot that Colt Brennan can revive his Heisman hopes. Standing in his way are the Kings of the Trick Play (sorry OU fans, I know you're still crying after last week's upset - I told you so). The Broncos are 10-1 and are averaging 44+ points per game this year. Hawaii narrowly escaped an upset last week at Nevada, and is two wins away from doing what Boise State did last year. Lets just hope that the BCS computer has ESPN2. Otherwise, the winner of this game could be relegated to the Humanitarian Bowl. Yay, Idaho! Hawaii covers the spread in this shootout.
Colorado -4.5 Nebraska
I'm sure that Bill Callahan would like nothing more than to end his coaching career at Nebraska with a win over rival Colorado. What, Callahan hasn't been fired yet? Tom Osborne, what were you hired for? Pull the trigger already! The only person from Nebraska having a worse year than Callahan is Gerald Ford - and he's dead. I'm not sure that President Ford could do a worse job coaching the Huskers either. For Colorado, they're a win away from being bowl eligible one season after going 2-12. And they did it without the help of Colt Brennan, a female kicker, or strippers! See, Notre Dame, there's hope for you after all. Colorado covers the spread this week.
Oregon -2 UCLA
This game makes me nervous. I hate taking a shaky road favorite, but I can't believe that the Ducks will lose two straight weeks even without the arm/legs of Dennis Dixon. They're really making the best of the situation, too. "The national championship thing was fine while it lasted," Oregon coach Mike Bellotti said. "The reality is we're still always trying to get the conference championship and the very best bowl game (the Rose Bowl)." Sure coach - I'm sure the mood in the locker room after last week's loss was all (pardon the pun) Roses. Let's put this game in perspective. Oregon is still 9th in the country and UCLA lost to Notre Dame. That alone should seal it up for most people. However, Oregon and UCLA give up roughly the
same number of points per game, and without Dennis Dixon, I don't think Oregon has enough firepower to come out on top. I'm taking UCLA with the points.
Texas -5 Texas A&M
I got an email from Dennis Franchione saying that they have no way to stop Colt McCoy. I subscribe to his super-secret booster club newsletter. That's why I'm going with the Longhorns to cover the spread.
VA Tech -3.5 Virginia
Could this be the year that Al Groh beats the Hokies? Does either team have a chance against Matt Ryan and BC for the ACC title? Does anybody really care about ACC Football now that basketball season started? VA Tech showed that they can hang with the ACC Atlantic champion Eagles for 58 minutes. Virginia hasn't had the pleasure of facing BC yet. After last week's drubbing of Miami, I think the Cavaliers are still the team to beat, and they'll prove that they are every bit as hot as I say they are against the Hokies in Charlottesville this week. Or, they'll lose miserably and I'll be forced to find a new "best team in the East." I'm taking Virginia with the points. I hope.
Until next week . . .
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Week 12 - Forgive and Forget?
This week, forgiveness seems to be the theme. A-Rod and the Yankees are talking again, Stephon Marbury returned to the Knicks, Ricky Williams was reinstated by the NFL, even LC and Heidi met to put the past behind them on the Hills. As I inch closer to .500 on the year, I'm hoping to be forgiven for some crappy picks I've made so far.
Maurice Clarett nominee of the week:
There were a couple vying for the (dis)honor this week. Coming in a close second was South Carolina for deciding to cancel their traditional mascot burn in preparation for the upcoming game against Clemson. As reported by ESPN.com, The Gamecocks announced Tuesday that the university will not hold its traditional "Tigerburn" pep rally before its football game with arch-rival Clemson because of a beach fire that killed seven of the schools' students last month. As a former mascot, I can say this is good news. Those costumes get plenty hot without adding a bonfire to the equation.
This week's winners are the University of Louisville and Duke who are in the middle of a lawsuit because Duke has opted out of a scheduled game this season as well as two more through 2009. The Blue Devils canceled the remaining games with the Cardinals and asked that Louisville make a "good faith effort" to find a suitable replacement. Hmmm - a suitable replacement for 1-9 Duke might be tough to find. I'm sure that Louisville's 40-3 ripping of Duke in 2002 had nothing to do with the Blue Devils opting out.
On to the picks . . .
Home team in BOLD
Notre Dame -5 Duke
Well, I figured I'd start my picks with a line that would have been 20 points higher two months ago. Besides their identical 1-9 records, both teams are coming off 41-24 losses, both teams are winless at home, and both teams game up 46 points to their common opponent, Navy. What do all of these stats mean? Not much. Both teams have abysmal offenses - ranked 116th (Duke) and 119th (ND) in total offense this season. The defenses haven't fared much better, allowing an average of 32.4 (ND) and 35 (Duke) points per game. From a pure numbers standpoint, these teams are evenly matched. However, Notre Dame is playing to keep what shred of pride they may have left. A winless season in South Bend might just be enough to make Touchdown Jesus relocate to Chestnut Hill (BC does have better Christians). Against my better judgment, I'm picking the Irish to cover the spread against Duke. If a bunch of Catholics can't beat a team of Devils, the apocalypse may be upon us.
Clemson -7.5 Boston College
From the worst in the ACC to two teams who are playing for a spot in the conference title game. With the winner of this game likely facing the winner of next week's Virginia-Virginia Tech match up, a lot is at stake here. Last year, players who went to the Orange Bowl got the following gift bag items: Orange Bowl beach hat, XM Satellite radio (with 4 month subscription), a watch, a beach towel, and a panoramic kickoff photo. On the other hand, the team that went to the Gator Bowl (ACC #3) got a commemorative ring, a pair of sunglasses, and a luggage set. I know its much easier to re-gift an XM radio to my brother than it is to convince him he wanted a new luggage set. For SWAG alone, you know this game will be intense. Well, that and Clemson hasn't beaten BC since 1958, they've lost the ACC Atlantic division title to the Eagles two years running (both times in OT), and Clemson QB Cullen Harper has invited himself to the Heisman discussion. This will be a real close game, and even if Clemson does manage to hand BC their third straight loss, I don't think it will happen during regulation. I'm taking the Eagles and the points this week.
Oregon -11 Arizona
Here's what we have learned this season. It is far better to be number three than it is to be number two. In 11 weeks this season, there have been six different number two teams in the country, with all of them dropping lower than #2 after being ranked there. This is Oregon's first week in the salutatorian spot, and with a national title game looming, you know the Ducks are starting to think about LSU and a trip to New Orleans. That could be bad news for a team that is facing one of the top passing games in the nation. Willie Tuitama of Arizona throws the ball a lot with 434 attempts yielding 3145 yards passing - good enough for ninth in the nation. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they have been a little sloppy on defense, giving up 140+ yards rushing five times over the last seven games. With the number five ranked rushing offense coming into Tuscon, Arizona will more than have their hands full. However I am pretty confident that the Wildcat air attack will be able to match Dennis Dixon and the Ducks on the ground for most of the game. This one will be close for three quarters but as they have done all season (8-0-1 ATS), Oregon will put the game out of reach in the fourth. I'm going with the road favorite in this game and I'll take Oregon giving 11 to Arizona.
Oklahoma -9 Texas Tech
****SPOILER ALERT****
Sooner fans, you may want to scroll down to the next game.
Oklahoma has managed to rebound from a bad loss to Colorado to put themselves within reach of BCS title game hopes. Currently ranked number four in the nation, the Sooners could win out this season, face Kansas for the Big XII title game, and with some help from Georgia, Florida, or an unknown PAC-10 team, they could be heading to New Orleans to play for Bob Stoops' second National Championship. Things seem to be shaping up nicely for OU, well except for the fact that they have to travel to Lubbock this week to take on one of the nation's best passers, Graham Harrell (4878 yards, 43 TDs). Don't get me wrong, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford (top rated passer in the nation) and WR Juaquin "Enrique" Iglesias are a very good scoring tandem, but Harrell and Freshman Michael Crabtree have hooked up for 20 TDs this season, more than any other QB-WR combo in the nation. The over-under for this game is 66, and with both teams averaging 40+ points per game, I think the over is a safe bet. Whichever QB's arm falls off first will probably be the loser, though I wouldn't put it past Red Raiders basketball coach Bob Knight to storm onto the field and duct tape Harrell's arm back onto his body. Sorry, Sooners, but this is your trap game. I'm bravely taking the Red Raiders with the points.
Ohio State -3 Michigan
Seriously? Who cares? In fact if there was a line for it, I'd be picking the D3 Mount Union Purple Raiders vs. Ithaca Bombers playoff game this weekend (I like the Purple Raiders giving 9.5).
Bowling Green -1 Buffalo
With a win against the Falcons this week, Buffalo would be a win away from a .500 season. Take a second to think that over. Go ahead, I'll wait . . . .
Okay? Good. That being the case, Buffalo has a very slight chance of playing in the postseason. The Falcons are that nice even team that wins the games the should win, and loses the games they should lose. This is a game that Bowling Green should win. Buffalo, while sporting wins over such MAC powerhouses as Temple, Akron, Ohio, and Toledo, doesn't really have a dominating offensive threat. If Bowling Green can neutralize RB James Starks (11 rushing TDs in 10 games), the Bulls will be forced to rely on QB Drew Willy and his Chad Pennington-esque 6.7 yards per attempt average. All that aside, Bowling Green doesn't do a great job of stopping the run, giving up an average of 224 yards rushing and 2 TDs on the ground per game. Those are NY Jets-like numbers, and we all know how well the Jets have done against decent running backs this season (see Portis, Clinton and Brown, Ronnie). Is this the year that Buffalo finally gains some respect and climbs out of the IA basement? I think it is. With Kent State waiting next week, I think the Bulls turn out a gutty win over Bowling Green and go on to be bowl-eligible for the first time ever. International Bowl, here we come! Who doesn't love Toronto in January? I'm taking Buffalo with the points in this one.
Until next week . . .
Maurice Clarett nominee of the week:
There were a couple vying for the (dis)honor this week. Coming in a close second was South Carolina for deciding to cancel their traditional mascot burn in preparation for the upcoming game against Clemson. As reported by ESPN.com, The Gamecocks announced Tuesday that the university will not hold its traditional "Tigerburn" pep rally before its football game with arch-rival Clemson because of a beach fire that killed seven of the schools' students last month. As a former mascot, I can say this is good news. Those costumes get plenty hot without adding a bonfire to the equation.
This week's winners are the University of Louisville and Duke who are in the middle of a lawsuit because Duke has opted out of a scheduled game this season as well as two more through 2009. The Blue Devils canceled the remaining games with the Cardinals and asked that Louisville make a "good faith effort" to find a suitable replacement. Hmmm - a suitable replacement for 1-9 Duke might be tough to find. I'm sure that Louisville's 40-3 ripping of Duke in 2002 had nothing to do with the Blue Devils opting out.
On to the picks . . .
Home team in BOLD
Notre Dame -5 Duke
Well, I figured I'd start my picks with a line that would have been 20 points higher two months ago. Besides their identical 1-9 records, both teams are coming off 41-24 losses, both teams are winless at home, and both teams game up 46 points to their common opponent, Navy. What do all of these stats mean? Not much. Both teams have abysmal offenses - ranked 116th (Duke) and 119th (ND) in total offense this season. The defenses haven't fared much better, allowing an average of 32.4 (ND) and 35 (Duke) points per game. From a pure numbers standpoint, these teams are evenly matched. However, Notre Dame is playing to keep what shred of pride they may have left. A winless season in South Bend might just be enough to make Touchdown Jesus relocate to Chestnut Hill (BC does have better Christians). Against my better judgment, I'm picking the Irish to cover the spread against Duke. If a bunch of Catholics can't beat a team of Devils, the apocalypse may be upon us.
Clemson -7.5 Boston College
From the worst in the ACC to two teams who are playing for a spot in the conference title game. With the winner of this game likely facing the winner of next week's Virginia-Virginia Tech match up, a lot is at stake here. Last year, players who went to the Orange Bowl got the following gift bag items: Orange Bowl beach hat, XM Satellite radio (with 4 month subscription), a watch, a beach towel, and a panoramic kickoff photo. On the other hand, the team that went to the Gator Bowl (ACC #3) got a commemorative ring, a pair of sunglasses, and a luggage set. I know its much easier to re-gift an XM radio to my brother than it is to convince him he wanted a new luggage set. For SWAG alone, you know this game will be intense. Well, that and Clemson hasn't beaten BC since 1958, they've lost the ACC Atlantic division title to the Eagles two years running (both times in OT), and Clemson QB Cullen Harper has invited himself to the Heisman discussion. This will be a real close game, and even if Clemson does manage to hand BC their third straight loss, I don't think it will happen during regulation. I'm taking the Eagles and the points this week.
Oregon -11 Arizona
Here's what we have learned this season. It is far better to be number three than it is to be number two. In 11 weeks this season, there have been six different number two teams in the country, with all of them dropping lower than #2 after being ranked there. This is Oregon's first week in the salutatorian spot, and with a national title game looming, you know the Ducks are starting to think about LSU and a trip to New Orleans. That could be bad news for a team that is facing one of the top passing games in the nation. Willie Tuitama of Arizona throws the ball a lot with 434 attempts yielding 3145 yards passing - good enough for ninth in the nation. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they have been a little sloppy on defense, giving up 140+ yards rushing five times over the last seven games. With the number five ranked rushing offense coming into Tuscon, Arizona will more than have their hands full. However I am pretty confident that the Wildcat air attack will be able to match Dennis Dixon and the Ducks on the ground for most of the game. This one will be close for three quarters but as they have done all season (8-0-1 ATS), Oregon will put the game out of reach in the fourth. I'm going with the road favorite in this game and I'll take Oregon giving 11 to Arizona.
Oklahoma -9 Texas Tech
****SPOILER ALERT****
Sooner fans, you may want to scroll down to the next game.
Oklahoma has managed to rebound from a bad loss to Colorado to put themselves within reach of BCS title game hopes. Currently ranked number four in the nation, the Sooners could win out this season, face Kansas for the Big XII title game, and with some help from Georgia, Florida, or an unknown PAC-10 team, they could be heading to New Orleans to play for Bob Stoops' second National Championship. Things seem to be shaping up nicely for OU, well except for the fact that they have to travel to Lubbock this week to take on one of the nation's best passers, Graham Harrell (4878 yards, 43 TDs). Don't get me wrong, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford (top rated passer in the nation) and WR Juaquin "Enrique" Iglesias are a very good scoring tandem, but Harrell and Freshman Michael Crabtree have hooked up for 20 TDs this season, more than any other QB-WR combo in the nation. The over-under for this game is 66, and with both teams averaging 40+ points per game, I think the over is a safe bet. Whichever QB's arm falls off first will probably be the loser, though I wouldn't put it past Red Raiders basketball coach Bob Knight to storm onto the field and duct tape Harrell's arm back onto his body. Sorry, Sooners, but this is your trap game. I'm bravely taking the Red Raiders with the points.
Ohio State -3 Michigan
Seriously? Who cares? In fact if there was a line for it, I'd be picking the D3 Mount Union Purple Raiders vs. Ithaca Bombers playoff game this weekend (I like the Purple Raiders giving 9.5).
Bowling Green -1 Buffalo
With a win against the Falcons this week, Buffalo would be a win away from a .500 season. Take a second to think that over. Go ahead, I'll wait . . . .
Okay? Good. That being the case, Buffalo has a very slight chance of playing in the postseason. The Falcons are that nice even team that wins the games the should win, and loses the games they should lose. This is a game that Bowling Green should win. Buffalo, while sporting wins over such MAC powerhouses as Temple, Akron, Ohio, and Toledo, doesn't really have a dominating offensive threat. If Bowling Green can neutralize RB James Starks (11 rushing TDs in 10 games), the Bulls will be forced to rely on QB Drew Willy and his Chad Pennington-esque 6.7 yards per attempt average. All that aside, Bowling Green doesn't do a great job of stopping the run, giving up an average of 224 yards rushing and 2 TDs on the ground per game. Those are NY Jets-like numbers, and we all know how well the Jets have done against decent running backs this season (see Portis, Clinton and Brown, Ronnie). Is this the year that Buffalo finally gains some respect and climbs out of the IA basement? I think it is. With Kent State waiting next week, I think the Bulls turn out a gutty win over Bowling Green and go on to be bowl-eligible for the first time ever. International Bowl, here we come! Who doesn't love Toronto in January? I'm taking Buffalo with the points in this one.
Until next week . . .
Monday, November 12, 2007
Week 11 Results
After two strong weeks, I'm creeping back into bowl contention. By this time next week, I could be back above .500 and heading to the Meineke Car Care Bowl!
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 25-29-1
Next week's big matchups include Kentucky-Georgia, the artists formerly known as Ohio State and Michigan, and 1-9 Duke taking on 1-9 Notre Dame . . . only on NBC!
Last Week: 4-1
Season: 25-29-1
Next week's big matchups include Kentucky-Georgia, the artists formerly known as Ohio State and Michigan, and 1-9 Duke taking on 1-9 Notre Dame . . . only on NBC!
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Week 11 and we're swearing off all things Orange
What a week for college football. The Orange of Syracuse look to reclaim last place in the Big East from once mighty USF, Miami plays their last game in the Orange Bowl, and OJ Simpson finds himself in front of a judge to somehow explain how his stuff ended up in some guy's hotel room. Had enough Vitamin C yet? Good - let's get on with the column. Like Coach Belichick says, I had a good week last week, but we can always do better this week.
I'd like to nominate both Charlie Weis and Bill Callahan for the Maurice Clarett award this week, but their both too busy trying to figure out how not to lose their next game. Special kudos to LaMarcus Coker was suspended for the season last week after failing his fourth drug test. The University of Tennessee revamped its drug-testing policy earlier this year and in doing so, added a fourth strike for a positive marijuana test before an athlete was dismissed. I'm shocked by this whole story. Not so much the part that he failed four different tests, but that his drug of choice was marijuana. Seriously, with a name like Coker . . . I'm a little disappointed. Well, I'm sure he can always transfer to Miami.
On to the picks . . .
Home team in BOLD
#20 Boise State -24.5 Utah State
This game could get ugly in a hurry. The Boys from the Smurf Turf are 8-1 and yes, I know they haven't played any big name opponents, but a regular season finale against Hawaii could turn into one of the better games in college football this year. This week, though, the 8-1 Broncos travel to Romney Stadium (no, not named after Mitt) to take on the 0-9 Aggies of Utah State. Boise State RB Ian Johnson (the same guy who proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend in last year's Fiesta Bowl - remember that Sooner fans?) returned last week after missing 2 games with a bruised kidney, rushing for 2 TDs against SDSU. This week, he takes on a Utah State defense that has given up 204+ rushing yards per game and a whopping 102 first downs on the ground. The only upside to those numbers is that the Aggie pass defense is even worse. While this season has been full of upsets and underdogs pulling out overtime victories, I think the Broncos will have no trouble covering the spread here even if Ian Johnson sits for the second half.
Iowa -13.5 Minnesota
"For a guy who has little to no love for the Big Ten, you sure pick a lot of their games, Lee."
Hey, unless you want me to write about this week's Kent State/Northern Illinois game, you'll keep your mouth shut. There some question about the outcome of this week's game. Iowa has won two straight to pull even on the season, but both of those games were come-from-behind wins. Minnesota on the other hand . . . well they just plain suck. But do they suck 13.5 points worth? Let's look at this game from a pure Vegas standpoint for a second. Iowa is 16-6 ATS (against the spread) in the month of November, they are 6-4 against the spread this season, and the Hawkeyes are 7-0 against the spread versus Minnesota since 1992. As for Minnesota? They'll probably go winless in the Big 10 and finish the season 1-11. At least they have Adrian Peterson to cheer about. I'm taking Iowa giving 2 TDs to the Golden Gophers.
Kentucky -4 Vanderbilt
Kentucky has been all over the place this season, and there's nothing I like picking more than teams with erratic records this year. The Wildcats started out 5-0 before losing to South Carolina, then followed that up with an upset of then #2 LSU, and followed that up with two straight losses. The one constant for Kentucky has been the play of QB Andre' Woodson, who has 28 TDs on the year - more than any of the "B" quarterbacks (Brennan, Brohm, Boeckman, and Bradford). However, Woodson is faced with the task of forgetting his last game, a 3 INT debacle against Mississippi State during Homecoming week. I'm sure he wasn't crowned King of the Prom after laying that goose egg. For Vanderbilt, their task this week gets even harder when the have to prepare to stop Woodson's air attack and the running game of Rafael Little, who returns after missing three weeks to a thigh injury. I haven't seen a the Commodores in such a tight spot since Lionel Richie decided to embark on a solo career. I'm taking Kentucky giving 4 points this week.
UNLV -2.5 San Diego State
UNLV has lost five straight. Yeah, I don't know how they're favored either. I'm looking for something positive to write about the Rebels, but all I can come up with is their QB is the second best guy named Dixon at his position west of the Mississippi. When that's the best I can do, you know the home team is in trouble. I'm taking the Aztecs and the points this week.
Miami -3.5 UVA
Sniff, sniff. Miami says goodbye to their home digs after years of great memories. Doug Flutie connecting on a Hail Mary pass to beat them in '84, Penn State's 79-yard TD pass to win in 1999, and a bench clearing brawl against FIU last year, man, the Canes sure are going to miss this place. Lucky for them, they get to close out their tenure at the Orange Bowl against the hottest team in the ACC, Virginia. The Cavaliers have won five games this season by 2 or fewer points, and have put together a 7-1 record in their last eight games. Luckily for Miami, Virginia has been winning these games despite their anemic offense, currently ranked 101st in I-A. I'm sure all of the big alumni will turn out for the Hurricanes this week - Brock Berlin, Lex Luger, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson to name a few. Even if Virginia's offense doesn't put up huge numbers, I'm sure that the Cavalier defense will be able to hold Miami and either "nervous" Kirby Freeman or the injured Kyle Wright to a minimum of damage, well as long as the Canes defense manages to get off the field for a change. I'm taking Virginia getting 3.5 from QB University.
Until next week . . .
I'd like to nominate both Charlie Weis and Bill Callahan for the Maurice Clarett award this week, but their both too busy trying to figure out how not to lose their next game. Special kudos to LaMarcus Coker was suspended for the season last week after failing his fourth drug test. The University of Tennessee revamped its drug-testing policy earlier this year and in doing so, added a fourth strike for a positive marijuana test before an athlete was dismissed. I'm shocked by this whole story. Not so much the part that he failed four different tests, but that his drug of choice was marijuana. Seriously, with a name like Coker . . . I'm a little disappointed. Well, I'm sure he can always transfer to Miami.
On to the picks . . .
Home team in BOLD
#20 Boise State -24.5 Utah State
This game could get ugly in a hurry. The Boys from the Smurf Turf are 8-1 and yes, I know they haven't played any big name opponents, but a regular season finale against Hawaii could turn into one of the better games in college football this year. This week, though, the 8-1 Broncos travel to Romney Stadium (no, not named after Mitt) to take on the 0-9 Aggies of Utah State. Boise State RB Ian Johnson (the same guy who proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend in last year's Fiesta Bowl - remember that Sooner fans?) returned last week after missing 2 games with a bruised kidney, rushing for 2 TDs against SDSU. This week, he takes on a Utah State defense that has given up 204+ rushing yards per game and a whopping 102 first downs on the ground. The only upside to those numbers is that the Aggie pass defense is even worse. While this season has been full of upsets and underdogs pulling out overtime victories, I think the Broncos will have no trouble covering the spread here even if Ian Johnson sits for the second half.
Iowa -13.5 Minnesota
"For a guy who has little to no love for the Big Ten, you sure pick a lot of their games, Lee."
Hey, unless you want me to write about this week's Kent State/Northern Illinois game, you'll keep your mouth shut. There some question about the outcome of this week's game. Iowa has won two straight to pull even on the season, but both of those games were come-from-behind wins. Minnesota on the other hand . . . well they just plain suck. But do they suck 13.5 points worth? Let's look at this game from a pure Vegas standpoint for a second. Iowa is 16-6 ATS (against the spread) in the month of November, they are 6-4 against the spread this season, and the Hawkeyes are 7-0 against the spread versus Minnesota since 1992. As for Minnesota? They'll probably go winless in the Big 10 and finish the season 1-11. At least they have Adrian Peterson to cheer about. I'm taking Iowa giving 2 TDs to the Golden Gophers.
Kentucky -4 Vanderbilt
Kentucky has been all over the place this season, and there's nothing I like picking more than teams with erratic records this year. The Wildcats started out 5-0 before losing to South Carolina, then followed that up with an upset of then #2 LSU, and followed that up with two straight losses. The one constant for Kentucky has been the play of QB Andre' Woodson, who has 28 TDs on the year - more than any of the "B" quarterbacks (Brennan, Brohm, Boeckman, and Bradford). However, Woodson is faced with the task of forgetting his last game, a 3 INT debacle against Mississippi State during Homecoming week. I'm sure he wasn't crowned King of the Prom after laying that goose egg. For Vanderbilt, their task this week gets even harder when the have to prepare to stop Woodson's air attack and the running game of Rafael Little, who returns after missing three weeks to a thigh injury. I haven't seen a the Commodores in such a tight spot since Lionel Richie decided to embark on a solo career. I'm taking Kentucky giving 4 points this week.
UNLV -2.5 San Diego State
UNLV has lost five straight. Yeah, I don't know how they're favored either. I'm looking for something positive to write about the Rebels, but all I can come up with is their QB is the second best guy named Dixon at his position west of the Mississippi. When that's the best I can do, you know the home team is in trouble. I'm taking the Aztecs and the points this week.
Miami -3.5 UVA
Sniff, sniff. Miami says goodbye to their home digs after years of great memories. Doug Flutie connecting on a Hail Mary pass to beat them in '84, Penn State's 79-yard TD pass to win in 1999, and a bench clearing brawl against FIU last year, man, the Canes sure are going to miss this place. Lucky for them, they get to close out their tenure at the Orange Bowl against the hottest team in the ACC, Virginia. The Cavaliers have won five games this season by 2 or fewer points, and have put together a 7-1 record in their last eight games. Luckily for Miami, Virginia has been winning these games despite their anemic offense, currently ranked 101st in I-A. I'm sure all of the big alumni will turn out for the Hurricanes this week - Brock Berlin, Lex Luger, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson to name a few. Even if Virginia's offense doesn't put up huge numbers, I'm sure that the Cavalier defense will be able to hold Miami and either "nervous" Kirby Freeman or the injured Kyle Wright to a minimum of damage, well as long as the Canes defense manages to get off the field for a change. I'm taking Virginia getting 3.5 from QB University.
Until next week . . .
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Week Ten Results
Thank you Notre Dame for confirming for us that your win against UCLA was in fact a fluke. After Navy's gutsy win for the Jesse Martineau trophy, the Irish are 0-5 at home. I have a better record at home, and I'm still looking for a job.
Week 10: 4-1
Season: 21-28-1
Look for some big games next week including 8-1 Boise State taking on 1-9 Utah State!
Week 10: 4-1
Season: 21-28-1
Look for some big games next week including 8-1 Boise State taking on 1-9 Utah State!
Friday, November 02, 2007
Week 10 - Recovering from Halloween
Happy November, everybody. I'm still feeling a bit sick from trick-or-treating this year. Maybe it was too much candy, maybe it was the stop at Andy Reid's house. I thought his kids were handing out bags of Pop Rocks. I guess they weren't. My bad. On a side note, thank you all for your kind words about the Red Sox and their win over "the best that the National League had to offer." Yes, Mets fans, we know your team was better, but in order for you to win in the playoffs, you must first make the playoffs. Also, a hearty congrats to the Yankees for finally getting rid of that sack of uselessness Donny Baseball. Now that the curse of Mattingly is over, you have no excuse when the Yankees don't win the World Series. Maybe you can just be like Scott Boras and blame the whole thing on Mariano Rivera. Well, at least you guys still have Power and Pinstripes.
This week's Maurice Clarett award goes to University of Washington RB J.R. Hasty. Hasty quit the Huskies' football team on Thursday of last week due to a lack of playing time. However, J.R. met with coach Ty Willingham on Monday and rejoined his team at practice this week. The coaching staff has been mum on most of the details surrounding the reinstatement, but the RB will be available to play tomorrow against Stanford. I guess we can chalk this one up to a (say it with me) Hasty decision on J.R.'s part. On to the picks.
Home team in BOLD
THE Ohio State University -15.5 Wisconsin
In the first game involving an unbeaten team this week, the Buckeyes take on a rejuvenated Wisconsin team, thanks in large part to RB P.J. Hill being able to run the ball. In the Badgers' two losses this season, Hill has been held to under 90 yards. In games when Hill has 100+ yards, Wisconsin is 5-0. Unfortunately for the Badgers, OSU has given up more than 100 yards rushing to an entire team only three times this season. Fortunately for the Badgers, one of those times was last week against Penn State. Reports out of Madison are that Hill will play despite a foot injury he suffered last week against Indiana. The bottom line is this - even with a healthy Hill, Wisconsin is going to have to do a lot better than they did against Penn State (38-7, L) if they want to have a chance against the Buckeyes and their 25.7 point margin of victory this season. Maybe coach Bret Bielemea should consider donning a sweater vest for this one. It seems to work for Jim Tressel. I'm taking the Buckeyes giving the points this week.
Notre Dame -3.5 Navy
I know I'm not the only one who has been waiting for this game. There must be 4300 Middies at the Naval Academy, plus another few hundred thousand graduates who have been waiting 43 years for the losing streak to end. I think they can stop waiting this week. We all know that Notre Dame is bad this year, but how good is Navy? They are a ho-hum 4-4 on the year, with a good win against Air Force but not much else. However, their offensive package is about as balanced as my checkbook. Let's just say I've been known to overdraw. The Midshipmen, specifically QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada are a very run heavy team (averaging 343 yards on the ground per game). To say that the Irish are having trouble against the run this year would be like saying that the US is having trouble with insurgents in Iraq. Notre Dame has held an opponent to under 160 yards rushing only twice this year, winning only one of those two games. Considering that only 14% of Navy's scoring has come through the air this year, I'd say that Notre Dame should have their hands full. I'm taking Navy with the points.
Oregon -7 Arizona State
Yes, the game that everyone says they've been waiting for, but since it involves two West Coast teams, no one will watch. We know that Dennis Dixon has made quite a name for himself as a Heisman candidate, and the comparisons to Vince Young are accurate, but does anyone know the real Dennis Dixon? Like that he drives a green four-door sedan? Or that his friends call him droop? Did you know that, Lee Corso? How about the fact that Ducks' running back Jonathan Stweart hasn't updated his MySpace page? Are you one of his friends, Kirk Herbstreit? Tom is. Tom also thinks that the Sun Devils are no match for Oregon on the road. And since Tom has over 207 million friends on Facebook, I'm going to go with him and take the Ducks giving seven. Sorry, coach Erickson - there's only room for one Dennis to win this week, and it isn't you.
Kansas -16.5 Nebraska
Somehow I've managed to ignore the fact that Kansas has gone undefeated this season. I'm sorry Kansas, I really am. How could I overlook the beating you gave (2-6, I-AA) SE Louisiana (led by QB Brian "Babaian" Babin), or the spanking of (0-8) Florida International (who hasn't won a game since 2005), or even the home opener against MAC powerhouse Central Michigan. I'm sorry I haven't been paying closer attention to the Jayhawks with that difficult out of conference schedule. What was I thinking? Nebraska, on the other hand, has lost 4 straight games (2 to ranked opponents), is under .500 for the first time since 2004, and with QB Sam Keller out for the season, the Huskers are going to need a few "Lucky" games from their star running back Marion to get bowl eligible. I'm going to take the home favorite Jayhawks this week, just because Nebraska's starting QB has completed fewer passes in his college career (10) than interceptions the Kansas defense has forced over the last five weeks ( 11). I'm taking Kansas giving the points.
Arkansas State -17.5 Florida International
This could be the anti-Colts/Patriots game. As I mentioned above, FIU is awful. They are on a frigid 20 game losing streak, 4-44 when scoring fewer than 30 points since 2001 (Arkansas State is allowing just above 28 per game this season), and they have scored an astounding seven TDs in 8 games this year. Even Notre Dame isn't that bad. Arkansas State is no top 25 team either. In addition to their 3-5 record, QB Corey Leonard has a TD:INT ratio of 13:11, and they lost to Middle Tennessee State by 17 (after MTSU was scorched by Louisville for 58 points this year). The saving grace for FIU could be that despite QB Wayne Younger's passer rating of 38.89 last week, he did rush for 124 yards. Now if he could just work on his 5:15 TD:INT ratio, FIU might be in business. I'm going to take the home favorite Indians over the Golden Panthers.
Until next week . . .
This week's Maurice Clarett award goes to University of Washington RB J.R. Hasty. Hasty quit the Huskies' football team on Thursday of last week due to a lack of playing time. However, J.R. met with coach Ty Willingham on Monday and rejoined his team at practice this week. The coaching staff has been mum on most of the details surrounding the reinstatement, but the RB will be available to play tomorrow against Stanford. I guess we can chalk this one up to a (say it with me) Hasty decision on J.R.'s part. On to the picks.
Home team in BOLD
THE Ohio State University -15.5 Wisconsin
In the first game involving an unbeaten team this week, the Buckeyes take on a rejuvenated Wisconsin team, thanks in large part to RB P.J. Hill being able to run the ball. In the Badgers' two losses this season, Hill has been held to under 90 yards. In games when Hill has 100+ yards, Wisconsin is 5-0. Unfortunately for the Badgers, OSU has given up more than 100 yards rushing to an entire team only three times this season. Fortunately for the Badgers, one of those times was last week against Penn State. Reports out of Madison are that Hill will play despite a foot injury he suffered last week against Indiana. The bottom line is this - even with a healthy Hill, Wisconsin is going to have to do a lot better than they did against Penn State (38-7, L) if they want to have a chance against the Buckeyes and their 25.7 point margin of victory this season. Maybe coach Bret Bielemea should consider donning a sweater vest for this one. It seems to work for Jim Tressel. I'm taking the Buckeyes giving the points this week.
Notre Dame -3.5 Navy
I know I'm not the only one who has been waiting for this game. There must be 4300 Middies at the Naval Academy, plus another few hundred thousand graduates who have been waiting 43 years for the losing streak to end. I think they can stop waiting this week. We all know that Notre Dame is bad this year, but how good is Navy? They are a ho-hum 4-4 on the year, with a good win against Air Force but not much else. However, their offensive package is about as balanced as my checkbook. Let's just say I've been known to overdraw. The Midshipmen, specifically QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada are a very run heavy team (averaging 343 yards on the ground per game). To say that the Irish are having trouble against the run this year would be like saying that the US is having trouble with insurgents in Iraq. Notre Dame has held an opponent to under 160 yards rushing only twice this year, winning only one of those two games. Considering that only 14% of Navy's scoring has come through the air this year, I'd say that Notre Dame should have their hands full. I'm taking Navy with the points.
Oregon -7 Arizona State
Yes, the game that everyone says they've been waiting for, but since it involves two West Coast teams, no one will watch. We know that Dennis Dixon has made quite a name for himself as a Heisman candidate, and the comparisons to Vince Young are accurate, but does anyone know the real Dennis Dixon? Like that he drives a green four-door sedan? Or that his friends call him droop? Did you know that, Lee Corso? How about the fact that Ducks' running back Jonathan Stweart hasn't updated his MySpace page? Are you one of his friends, Kirk Herbstreit? Tom is. Tom also thinks that the Sun Devils are no match for Oregon on the road. And since Tom has over 207 million friends on Facebook, I'm going to go with him and take the Ducks giving seven. Sorry, coach Erickson - there's only room for one Dennis to win this week, and it isn't you.
Kansas -16.5 Nebraska
Somehow I've managed to ignore the fact that Kansas has gone undefeated this season. I'm sorry Kansas, I really am. How could I overlook the beating you gave (2-6, I-AA) SE Louisiana (led by QB Brian "Babaian" Babin), or the spanking of (0-8) Florida International (who hasn't won a game since 2005), or even the home opener against MAC powerhouse Central Michigan. I'm sorry I haven't been paying closer attention to the Jayhawks with that difficult out of conference schedule. What was I thinking? Nebraska, on the other hand, has lost 4 straight games (2 to ranked opponents), is under .500 for the first time since 2004, and with QB Sam Keller out for the season, the Huskers are going to need a few "Lucky" games from their star running back Marion to get bowl eligible. I'm going to take the home favorite Jayhawks this week, just because Nebraska's starting QB has completed fewer passes in his college career (10) than interceptions the Kansas defense has forced over the last five weeks ( 11). I'm taking Kansas giving the points.
Arkansas State -17.5 Florida International
This could be the anti-Colts/Patriots game. As I mentioned above, FIU is awful. They are on a frigid 20 game losing streak, 4-44 when scoring fewer than 30 points since 2001 (Arkansas State is allowing just above 28 per game this season), and they have scored an astounding seven TDs in 8 games this year. Even Notre Dame isn't that bad. Arkansas State is no top 25 team either. In addition to their 3-5 record, QB Corey Leonard has a TD:INT ratio of 13:11, and they lost to Middle Tennessee State by 17 (after MTSU was scorched by Louisville for 58 points this year). The saving grace for FIU could be that despite QB Wayne Younger's passer rating of 38.89 last week, he did rush for 124 yards. Now if he could just work on his 5:15 TD:INT ratio, FIU might be in business. I'm going to take the home favorite Indians over the Golden Panthers.
Until next week . . .
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