Week 12 - Forgive and Forget?

This week, forgiveness seems to be the theme. A-Rod and the Yankees are talking again, Stephon Marbury returned to the Knicks, Ricky Williams was reinstated by the NFL, even LC and Heidi met to put the past behind them on the Hills. As I inch closer to .500 on the year, I'm hoping to be forgiven for some crappy picks I've made so far.

Maurice Clarett nominee of the week:

There were a couple vying for the (dis)honor this week. Coming in a close second was South Carolina for deciding to cancel their traditional mascot burn in preparation for the upcoming game against Clemson. As reported by ESPN.com, The Gamecocks announced Tuesday that the university will not hold its traditional "Tigerburn" pep rally before its football game with arch-rival Clemson because of a beach fire that killed seven of the schools' students last month. As a former mascot, I can say this is good news. Those costumes get plenty hot without adding a bonfire to the equation.

This week's winners are the University of Louisville and Duke who are in the middle of a lawsuit because Duke has opted out of a scheduled game this season as well as two more through 2009. The Blue Devils canceled the remaining games with the Cardinals and asked that Louisville make a "good faith effort" to find a suitable replacement. Hmmm - a suitable replacement for 1-9 Duke might be tough to find. I'm sure that Louisville's 40-3 ripping of Duke in 2002 had nothing to do with the Blue Devils opting out.

On to the picks . . .

Home team in BOLD

Notre Dame -5 Duke

Well, I figured I'd start my picks with a line that would have been 20 points higher two months ago. Besides their identical 1-9 records, both teams are coming off 41-24 losses, both teams are winless at home, and both teams game up 46 points to their common opponent, Navy. What do all of these stats mean? Not much. Both teams have abysmal offenses - ranked 116th (Duke) and 119th (ND) in total offense this season. The defenses haven't fared much better, allowing an average of 32.4 (ND) and 35 (Duke) points per game. From a pure numbers standpoint, these teams are evenly matched. However, Notre Dame is playing to keep what shred of pride they may have left. A winless season in South Bend might just be enough to make Touchdown Jesus relocate to Chestnut Hill (BC does have better Christians). Against my better judgment, I'm picking the Irish to cover the spread against Duke. If a bunch of Catholics can't beat a team of Devils, the apocalypse may be upon us.

Clemson -7.5 Boston College

From the worst in the ACC to two teams who are playing for a spot in the conference title game. With the winner of this game likely facing the winner of next week's Virginia-Virginia Tech match up, a lot is at stake here. Last year, players who went to the Orange Bowl got the following gift bag items: Orange Bowl beach hat, XM Satellite radio (with 4 month subscription), a watch, a beach towel, and a panoramic kickoff photo. On the other hand, the team that went to the Gator Bowl (ACC #3) got a commemorative ring, a pair of sunglasses, and a luggage set. I know its much easier to re-gift an XM radio to my brother than it is to convince him he wanted a new luggage set. For SWAG alone, you know this game will be intense. Well, that and Clemson hasn't beaten BC since 1958, they've lost the ACC Atlantic division title to the Eagles two years running (both times in OT), and Clemson QB Cullen Harper has invited himself to the Heisman discussion. This will be a real close game, and even if Clemson does manage to hand BC their third straight loss, I don't think it will happen during regulation. I'm taking the Eagles and the points this week.

Oregon -11 Arizona

Here's what we have learned this season. It is far better to be number three than it is to be number two. In 11 weeks this season, there have been six different number two teams in the country, with all of them dropping lower than #2 after being ranked there. This is Oregon's first week in the salutatorian spot, and with a national title game looming, you know the Ducks are starting to think about LSU and a trip to New Orleans. That could be bad news for a team that is facing one of the top passing games in the nation. Willie Tuitama of Arizona throws the ball a lot with 434 attempts yielding 3145 yards passing - good enough for ninth in the nation. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they have been a little sloppy on defense, giving up 140+ yards rushing five times over the last seven games. With the number five ranked rushing offense coming into Tuscon, Arizona will more than have their hands full. However I am pretty confident that the Wildcat air attack will be able to match Dennis Dixon and the Ducks on the ground for most of the game. This one will be close for three quarters but as they have done all season (8-0-1 ATS), Oregon will put the game out of reach in the fourth. I'm going with the road favorite in this game and I'll take Oregon giving 11 to Arizona.

Oklahoma -9 Texas Tech

****SPOILER ALERT****
Sooner fans, you may want to scroll down to the next game.

Oklahoma has managed to rebound from a bad loss to Colorado to put themselves within reach of BCS title game hopes. Currently ranked number four in the nation, the Sooners could win out this season, face Kansas for the Big XII title game, and with some help from Georgia, Florida, or an unknown PAC-10 team, they could be heading to New Orleans to play for Bob Stoops' second National Championship. Things seem to be shaping up nicely for OU, well except for the fact that they have to travel to Lubbock this week to take on one of the nation's best passers, Graham Harrell (4878 yards, 43 TDs). Don't get me wrong, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford (top rated passer in the nation) and WR Juaquin "Enrique" Iglesias are a very good scoring tandem, but Harrell and Freshman Michael Crabtree have hooked up for 20 TDs this season, more than any other QB-WR combo in the nation. The over-under for this game is 66, and with both teams averaging 40+ points per game, I think the over is a safe bet. Whichever QB's arm falls off first will probably be the loser, though I wouldn't put it past Red Raiders basketball coach Bob Knight to storm onto the field and duct tape Harrell's arm back onto his body. Sorry, Sooners, but this is your trap game. I'm bravely taking the Red Raiders with the points.

Ohio State -3 Michigan

Seriously? Who cares? In fact if there was a line for it, I'd be picking the D3 Mount Union Purple Raiders vs. Ithaca Bombers playoff game this weekend (I like the Purple Raiders giving 9.5).

Bowling Green -1 Buffalo

With a win against the Falcons this week, Buffalo would be a win away from a .500 season. Take a second to think that over. Go ahead, I'll wait . . . .

Okay? Good. That being the case, Buffalo has a very slight chance of playing in the postseason. The Falcons are that nice even team that wins the games the should win, and loses the games they should lose. This is a game that Bowling Green should win. Buffalo, while sporting wins over such MAC powerhouses as Temple, Akron, Ohio, and Toledo, doesn't really have a dominating offensive threat. If Bowling Green can neutralize RB James Starks (11 rushing TDs in 10 games), the Bulls will be forced to rely on QB Drew Willy and his Chad Pennington-esque 6.7 yards per attempt average. All that aside, Bowling Green doesn't do a great job of stopping the run, giving up an average of 224 yards rushing and 2 TDs on the ground per game. Those are NY Jets-like numbers, and we all know how well the Jets have done against decent running backs this season (see Portis, Clinton and Brown, Ronnie). Is this the year that Buffalo finally gains some respect and climbs out of the IA basement? I think it is. With Kent State waiting next week, I think the Bulls turn out a gutty win over Bowling Green and go on to be bowl-eligible for the first time ever. International Bowl, here we come! Who doesn't love Toronto in January? I'm taking Buffalo with the points in this one.


Until next week . . .