6-3-1 . . . and still looking good

First off, let me say that my detailed analysis of why UCLA would whup Arizona last week was just a little misguided. And the Patriots had just a little bit of a hard time stopping the Colts last week. I'm glad we got that out of the way.

Even though I goofed on the UCLA and BC games, Notre Dame, Penn State and the mighty Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (who are on the verge of dropping to Division I-AA) came through 45-7. So after going 3-2 on the week, I am 6-3-1 after two weeks. Here are my picks for this week.

@ Louisville -22 Rutgers

I never thought I'd see the day when Rutgers (6-3) was having a better season than their NJ professional counterparts, the Jets (2-6). How weak has the Big East become when the Scarlet Knights are bowl eligible and there is only one legitimate top 25 team in the conference? This week Louisville is out to prove that they are a second top 25 contender, and that they are still in the hunt for a shot of the Big East title. I'm pretty sure they'll win the game, but not by 22. In the first of my "Hot Dog" picks this week, I see Rutgers losing by less than 22 points, and happily heading off to the Insight.com bowl in a few weeks.

@ Georgia -3 Auburn

After Georgia's loss to Florida ended their perfect season, it was hard not to pick this game. It has all the elements of a big win for the Dawgs - the return of an injured team leader in D. J. Shockley (who I still think sounds like a bad Long Island club emcee), the hope to rebound and grab a piece of the conference title, being able to prove to the nation that they are in fact as good as their 7-1 record says they are. And all of this happening at home! So why are they only favored by 3? Oh, maybe its because Georgia is just 2-9 against Auburn at home in their last 11 meetings. Or the fact that while Shockley is returning, he's a pretty mobile quarterback coming back from a knee injury. Either way, I'm going out on a limb and taking my second underdog of the week. Chances are this will be the game I blow, but if I guess right, I look like a genius. That and $1.50 gets me a cup of coffee at Dunkin' Donuts. Pick Auburn with the points over Georgia.

@ Tennessee -18 Memphis

Who's beginning to see a pattern here? Tennessee went into last week's game against Notre Dame boasting a great defense - as had much of the SEC. The Vols had held #5 Alabam to 6 points, and #6 Florida to 16. When Tennessee gave up 20 straight points to the Irish in the fourth quarter the great defense arguement lost some credibility. Enter Memphis. With a 4-4 record, the Tigers are having a decent year, averaging 274.8 yards rushing per game (5th in the nation) and scoring 27.8 per game, 11 more than Tennessee's avergae points scored. However, if Tennessee plays some defence this week, and can hold Memphis to under 20 points, then they should have no trouble. Memphis is 1-14 since 2001 when they score fewer than 20 points. I think this game will be a lot closer than the spread indicates, and because of that I'm taking Memphis with the points.

@ UCLA -3.5 ASU

Lee's Note: I can't hear any of you laughing at this pick, those chants of "Overrated" are still ringing in my ears.

"Hi, we're UCLA, and we used this gimmic last week. You might remember, we got embarassed by Arizona when we lost by 38. Um, yeah, we're sorry about that. But this week we're playing another team from Arizona - this one has more than 2 wins though, and now we're only favored by three and a half points. We still think you should pick us to win, but you might want to hedge your bet by taking the over in this game too. We can pretty much guarantee that between Drew Olsen (25 TD) and Sam Keller (20 TD) there's going to be a lot of scoring.

@ Notre Dame -23 Navy

In the battle for the Jesse Martineau trophy, Norte Dame has the distinct advantage. They're bowl eligible for the first time since I was in college, they're coming off of a big win against Tennessee, and they have beaten Navy 41 straight times. Navy is having a very good season, and though I don't see an upset here, I do see an interesting matchup. First off, today is Veterans Day, and as the old saying goes, "Don't bet against the service academies on Veterans Day weekend." Okay, there is no saying like that, but there should be. Second, Notre Dame has only beaten one team by more than 23 points this season (BYU) and Charlie Weis doesn't strike me like the kind of guy who would run up the score against a) a service academy or b) an intersectional rival who will remember this game for the next decade if the Irish blow them out. That being said, Noter Dame will dominate, Brady Quinn will shine, and the Irish will win the game by no more than 21 points. Yes, I know that just to spite me, D.J. Fitzpatrick will nail a 40+ yarder to put them up by 24, but I'm sticking with my gut here, and I'll take Navy and the points.